What happened to the offense? A statistical snapshot
Rewinding to 2019, the Seattle Sounders clinched the MLS Cup with a remarkable starting lineup:
Throughout that regular season, the offensive line-up saw little deviation, with Jones stepping in for Victor being the only notable change. Players like Raul, Nico, Cristian, and Gustav found themselves in the starting eleven over 20 times each.
Fast forward to 2023, and we see a Sounders offense that's struggling visibly, raising the question: 'What happened to the Sounders offense?' One way to investigate this is by comparing the team's statistical performance across different positions from 2019 to 2023.
Our focus on 2019 is due to the consistency and strength of the Sounders core team in that season. The following years each presented unique challenges - a COVID-shortened 2020 with inconsistent lineups, an injury to Nico Lodeiro in 2021, and Joao Paulo's sidelining in 2022.
To explore the changes in the production from the offensive core, we'll compare key performance metrics for each player per 90 minutes of play against all other MLS players. Please note that in 2023, there were five more teams than in 2019.
These can show us that:
Gustav Svensson: Known for his defensive mid-field abilities, he led the team in tackles, blocks, and interceptions, making his position clear on the field.
Cristian Roldan: As the center midfielder, his role was decision making and connecting units. He was instrumental in defensive recoveries and starting plays with progressive passes.
Nico Lodeiro: He excelled as the attacking midfielder with significant contributions in progressive passes, through balls, and drawing fouls.
Jordan Morris: As a winger, he played a crucial role in receiving and forwarding dangerous balls, a skill demonstrated by his remarkable assist stats.
Please note that this is just the statistics and there is much more to the story once you factor in decision making, positioning, and different ball placement abilities. This is just to get the gears working and thinking.
In 2023, the Seattle Sounders main rotation has been Joao Paulo, Nico Lodeiro, Albert Rusnak, and Leo Chu.
Statistically this is where they rank in some categories for all players, please note that there were 5 more teams in 2023 than 2019:
Here, we can notice the change in personnel in each position.
A comparison of these statistical changes can reveal significant differences. For this analysis, we consider a difference of 50 player spots as substantial. Here's a comparison between Gustav Svensson and Joao Paulo, both having played the role of defensive midfielder:
Observations:
Joao statistically is significantly outperforming Gustav
Joao is a top 5 defensive midfielder in the league
Joao is also contributing to offense via progressive passes quite significantly ranking top 10 in the league, something Gustav did at a lower rate.
Center Midfield and the difference between Cristian Roldan and Albert Rusnak:
Observations:
Cristian Roldan significantly outperformed Albert Rusnak
Cristian was among the league leaders in fouls drawn which is usually a leading indicator of a dangerous player
Albert Rusnak does not contribute on the defensive end
Even though Rusnak plays little defense, he still underperforms Cristian in offensive production
Attacking midfielder is still Nico Lodeiro, the captain:
Observations:
Nico was playing at an elite level in 2019 and his 2023 year is not far behind.
This year he is dribbling and switching the ball across field less.
On most teams he would still rank first or second in xAG, progressive passes, through balls, crosses, blocks, fouls drawn, and dribbles challenged in both years.
He's still contributing on defense as an attacking midfielder at a high rate by challenging dribbles and blocking passes.
Winger and the difference between Leo Chu and Jordan Morris:
Observations:
Leo Chu is on fire, goal production goes through him, top 5 in the league in assists, xAG, and progressive carries.
Jordan Morris was also fantastic in the assist category based on the passes he received in 2019.
Leo Chu does a bit more defensive work than Jordan Morris does.
In conclusion, a comparative analysis of the Sounders 2019 and 2023 offensive lineups provides compelling insights into shifts in performance levels.
Joao Paulo, as the defensive midfielder, has significantly improved the role, showing exceptional defensive skills while also contributing to offensive play, outperforming Gustav Svensson's 2019 performance. His high ranking in progressive passes and defensive statistics indicates a well-rounded player who balances his responsibilities perfectly.
Conversely, the center midfield has seen a dip in performance, due to Albert Rusnak, who took on Cristian Roldan's role. Rusnak's limited defensive contribution, and insufficient offensive production, has left a void in the team's statistical rankings.
In the attacking midfielder role, Nico Lodeiro, despite a few changes in his playstyle, has maintained a high performance level comparable to his 2019 stats. He remains a cornerstone of the Sounders offense, showcasing his versatility in both offensive creation and defensive contributions.
Finally, the winger position shows an impressive performance from Leo Chu, who has stepped into Jordan Morris's shoes effectively. Chu's offensive contribution is noteworthy, being a league leader in assists, xAG, and progressive carries, coupled with his added defensive efforts.
Curiously, it's hard to overlook the fact that despite a robust statistical year from the core team, the Sounders offense has hit a bit of a snag in 2023. Does this point to Albert Rusnak as the outlier? Could he be the sunk cost that's disrupting the team's strategy? This doesn't undermine Rusnak's individual talent, but it raises questions about his compatibility within the current squad. As Barry Staw and Ha Hoang from the University of California, Berkeley found in their research, teams often offer extended playtime to their high draft picks, regardless of how they perform on the field. Could this be a sunk cost scenario where the team is trying to recoup its investment of a designated player spot and a significant financial commitment on Rusnak?
Instead of seeking additional funds for a new player, could the solution be as simple as reinstating Roldan into the center midfield, a position where he shone during the Sounders last two MLS Cup trips?
While statistics only provide a glimpse into the entire picture, they still furnish crucial insights into the team's progression. They provoke critical discussions around team composition and player performance, possibly prompting tactical modifications that could bring the Sounders a step closer to their forthcoming triumph than it currently appears.
Do you find the statistical assumptions convincing?
Perhaps, the Sounders are on the brink of another breakthrough, only a few strategic tweaks away from achieving their desired success.
For more on sunk costs report I mentioned:
Sunk Costs in the NBA: Why Draft Order Affects Playing Time and Survival in Professional Basketball
Comments