Leading the league in Xg!!

In the world of football, there's always more than what meets the eye. The cold, hard stats often narrate a tale much deeper than what's displayed on the scoreboards. This season, our beloved Seattle Sounders have started off with a bang - leading the league in Expected Goals (xG) with an impressive 1.73 per game. Great news, right? But is it really?

When you delve deeper into the annals of MLS history, you'll find that high xG often doesn't translate into a successful season. With the Sounders almost halfway through the season, it's time to turn the magnifying glass on the stats and answer the burning question - is leading the league in xG a blessing or a curse?

Their Xg is on pace to be the 16th highest recorded Xg per game in the last 6 seasons of MLS play out of 157 eligible teams.

3 of those 15 teams above Seattle made the MLS Cup and 2 won it. On the flip side, 4 of them did not make the playoffs.

Check out the list:

So, what was the reason those other 4 teams did not make the playoffs?

Goal difference, it always comes down to score more then your opponents.

The cutoff line seems to be at 10 GD by the end of the season. 9 of the 11 teams that made the playoffs finished above 10 and all 4 of the teams that missed the playoffs finished with less than 10.

So, how did these 6 teams with a GD under 10 start their season?

All but one had a higher Xg than Seattle to start their season, however Seattle has the superior GD.

How about those teams that finished with above 10 GD, how did they start their season?

Wow, most of them were off to fast starts in terms of Xg and GD.

So, what does all this mean for our beloved Sounders? It's clear that a strong start in terms of xG is a promising sign, but it's not enough. Simply put, it's about converting those chances into real goals. They've shown promise and potential, leading the league in xG and starting the season with a superior GD, but we need more. We need finishes. We need that number on the scoreboard to go up. It's not about how many opportunities we create; it's about how many we convert.

History has shown that a high xG isn't a guaranteed ticket to the playoffs, let alone the MLS Cup. The teams that secure their playoff spot and push for the championship are those that exceed a GD of 10 by the end of the season.

As we stand almost halfway through the season, the Sounders risk falling into the unfortunate category of high xG underachievers unless they start finishing more of the chances they create. There's an old saying, 'Goals win games.' Well, for the Sounders, goals will also cement their place in the playoffs and maybe even clinch the MLS Cup. The evidence suggests that if the Sounders continue to miss their shots, regardless of their high xG, the playoffs could just slip away.

So, let's keep creating those chances, Sounders, but more importantly, let's start burying them. It's time to turn that xG into G, and fast!